In the 1980’s and 90’s massive protests were organized by workers against a new threat. A threat which could potentially wipe out millions of jobs, and leave families starving on the streets. It was said there would be no more jobs for humans. No salaries, no livelihood. The Computers are taking over!
Does this sound familiar to you? If you follow the news, I bet it does! It is impossible to spend a day without hearing about the new threat - Artificial Intelligence(AI). A report by the IMF suggests that 40% of all global jobs will be affected by AI, with the number edging closer to 60% in developed countries. Another report by the World Economic Forum(WEF) suggests that two-fifths of the skill sets that workers depend on today could potentially be outdated by 2030.
Did computers take away all the jobs?
For the record, computers did not take away all the jobs. Instead, it transformed the way society lived and worked. In the short to mid-term, it did eliminate certain classes of jobs, but in the long term it created a whole new category of jobs. This lead to more prosperity than the world had ever seen before.
This is a recurrent theme whenever humanity has come face to face with a revolutionary new technology. Especially, technologies which unlock huge productivity gains. Think of fire, electricity, machines, computers, the Internet, and smart phones.
We cannot predict the future, but based on hindsight, we could very well expect the same playbook to unfold in the case of AI. When major shifts occur in society, it is normal for people to panic and resist the change. Especially if it is something that affects livelihood. If we look back in history, the one’s who have thrived are always those who accept and embrace the change that is facing them.
AI seems to be one such change.
Should I be worried about AI?
I am a software engineer with close to two decades of industry experience. I get to see AI playout from close quarters. My profession is one of the most severely affected due to AI, even though all professions are expected to be affected in varying degrees.
Hiring for junior software engineers is at an all-time low. AI has already become an irreplaceable tool in my daily workflow. I am able to accomplish tasks within hours, that previously used to take me days. It has greatly simplified the process of researching, and learning new areas and topics of interest. This in turn leads to huge productivity improvements. A large part of my job which used to be writing software, is being replaced by AI tools which generate the code for me when I prompt it in plain English.
Hearing all this, it is tempting to believe AI is indeed going to take away all our jobs. Humans will have nothing to do in the future. Governments will have to provide universal basic incomes(UBI) to the entire population for people to survive.
However, I believe a lot of it is hype, and fear mongering, like in the past. As of today, AI is not at a stage where it can completely replace a human, in a job which requires significant amount of critical and creative thinking. The reality is more of a collaborative nature. AI today can be thought of as a powerful tool enhancing human potential. It takes away a lot of the heavy lifting, leaving the strategic thinking, planning and decision making to the human.
Perhaps the case is different with jobs that involve routine repetitive knowledge work. These might get replaced completely. If you are in jobs like customer care, it would be wise to consider up-skilling or re-skilling, and move up the value chain.
The future
In the next 5-10 years, all jobs will be affected, my own included. Skills that I had painstakingly built over the past two decades, will get automated by AI. The craft of programming, that I had been honing with passion and dedication, suddenly is just an AI feature.
I will not lie. Like everyone, I am also concerned about my future, and more importantly my family’s future. Will I still be relevant to the software industry, or the job market in general, in 5 years time? How do I guide my child to prepare for a future, which I have no idea about? What will jobs look like in 10 years from now?
I finally concluded that the best course of action is to embrace the change, and move forward. Moving forward in my opinion would involve working on two pillars of knowledge - a deep understanding of AI, and Foundational professional skills.
Understanding AI
The first step is to get an understanding of AI from as close quarters as possible. This would include using existing AI tools in the market to get a fair understanding of what they are currently capable of, and more importantly where they are lagging. It would be essential to try out similar offerings from competing vendors on different tasks, to get a fair picture of the lay of the land. This I believe would give a comprehensive picture of what is AI reality, and what is hype. Mind you, this is not a one-off exercise. I would recommend doing this monthly if possible, or quarterly at the very least, considering the pace of developments in AI.
Improving foundational skills
The second step is to go back to the drawing board, and work on the foundational skills required for being a successful professional, irrespective of industry. These are a set of skills that are commonly known as soft-skills. They include, but are not limited to, communication, team work, problem solving, critical thinking, emotional intelligence, leadership and creativity.
Conclusion
I am doubtful whether programming in it’s present shape will be seen as a high-value skillset in the future, as it is considered today. All signs indicate otherwise. Perhaps I will learn to be a new kind of programmer. One whose primary responsibility is to manage an AI, which in turn is responsible for generating all the software. Alternatively, there might even come a day when I might have to pivot to a totally new career. The best I can do, I believe, is to be prepared.
I will be sharing my learnings in future posts. Hope you can also join my journey in embracing the change, and thriving in this new world.
Most new revolution in the world of technology. It is quite natural that AI is viewed by the concerned people with suspecion . But it seems to be of immense use to save valuable time and thereby create inormous wealth . This article vividly depict the pros and cons of this subject from the experience of the author so as to convince the readers.